Borussia Dortmundvs
SC Paderborn 07
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 9/12/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Borussia Dortmund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07
Original prediction
Borussia Dortmund
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.23 | 77.0% | 56.7% | -20.4 pts |
| Draw | 6.74 | 14.1% | 22.2% | 8.1 pts |
| Away | 10.72 | 8.9% | 21.1% | 12.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Borussia Dortmund
Probability
56.7%
Model confidence
56.7%
Borussia Dortmund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00