Borussia Dortmundvs
Hamburger SV
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 8/29/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Borussia Dortmund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 3-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SV
Original prediction
Borussia Dortmund
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 69.6% | 71.8% | 2.2 pts |
| Draw | 5.24 | 18.0% | 16.5% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 7.63 | 12.4% | 11.7% | -0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.3–09%
Predicted outcome
Borussia Dortmund
Probability
71.8%
Model confidence
71.8%
Borussia Dortmund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20