Borussia Dortmundvs
Bayern München
SCHEDULEDGermany · Super Cup · 8/22/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Borussia Dortmund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Borussia Dortmund are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Bayern Munich are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDD), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and borussia Dortmund hold a 43.0-point power-rating edge (50.0 v 7.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the Super Cup, favouring Borussia Dortmund with 9.9% confidence, a 65% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Borussia Dortmund
Probability
55.6%
Model confidence
9.9%
Borussia Dortmund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20