Boreham Woodvs
Carlisle
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 9/5/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Boreham Wood · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Boreham Wood 2-1 Carlisle
Original prediction
Boreham Wood
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 54.5% | 50.2% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.96 | 23.2% | 22.7% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 4.11 | 22.3% | 27.1% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.68 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Boreham Wood
Probability
50.2%
Model confidence
50.2%
Boreham Wood has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60