Copa RioCopa Rio
Wednesday, 15 July 2026Last updated 10:05
Bonsucesso

Bonsucesso

Home
D
22
Full time
Madureira

Madureira

Away
D
GoalVio prediction
59% confidence
Bonsucesso(59%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Prediction missed— Result: Draw
Win probability
Bonsucesso
59%
Draw
22%
Madureira
20%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Bonsucesso
73
Madureira
73
Defence
Bonsucesso
27
Madureira
27
Momentum
Bonsucesso
33
Madureira
33
Danger (xG)
Bonsucesso
1.80
Madureira
1.80
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Bonsucesso)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (Madureira)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Bonsucesso)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Madureira)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
BonsucessoBonsucesso
DWDL
MadureiraMadureira
DL

Probability breakdown

59% confidence
Bonsucesso59%
Draw22%
Madureira20%

Bonsucesso leads with 59% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Bonsucesso head into this in Copa Rio fixture in mixed form (D), while Madureira arrive in mixed form (D). Bonsucesso have a 0% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 0% for Madureira over 1 games.

Both teams carry genuine attacking threat — Bonsucesso (73/100) and Madureira (73/100) are both rated highly going forward. The model anticipates an open, goal-heavy contest.

Bonsucesso have won 1 of their last 3 home fixtures, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game at home. Madureira have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 2 away matches. They average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per away game.

The last 1 meetings between these sides have been evenly split, with 1 draw, averaging 4.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects Bonsucesso to win with 59% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Bonsucesso 5884%, Draw 2165%, Madureira 1951%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

Bonsucesso 0Draws 10 Madureira
Avg goals: 4.0BTTS in 1/1
15 Jul 2026
Bonsucesso
D22
Madureira

Recent form

Bonsucesso

Bonsucesso

D
vs Madureira
15 Jul 2026
22
W
vs América RJ
1 Jul 2026
32
D
@ CFRJ / Maricá
10 Jun 2026
00
L
vs Audax Rio
16 May 2026
01
Madureira

Madureira

D
@ Bonsucesso
15 Jul 2026
22
L
@ América RJ
16 May 2026
02

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Bonsucesso vs Madureira?

GoalVio's model predicts Bonsucesso to win with 59% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Bonsucesso vs Madureira?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Bonsucesso vs Madureira?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bonsucesso vs Madureira?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more