Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bonaire · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bonaire 2-3 Grenada
Original prediction
Bonaire
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.41 | 20.7% | 37.3% | 16.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.7% | 25.9% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 1.70 | 53.6% | 36.8% | -16.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Bonaire
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Bonaire has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BonaireLLLLL
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
GrenadaLLLLW
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
BonaireGrenada
16.7Attack0.0
33.3Defence0.0
0.0Form0.0
21.5Power10.0
1.89xG1.43