Bom Jesus ECvs
Morrinhos
COMPLETEDBrazil · Goiano - 2 · 10/7/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bom Jesus EC · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Bom Jesus EC 1-0 Morrinhos, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Bom Jesus EC 3-2 Morrinhos
Original prediction
Bom Jesus EC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 23 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 56.3% | 50.4% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 25.8% | 28.3% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 5.03 | 17.9% | 21.3% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.60 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Projected Score
Bom Jesus EC 1–0 Morrinhos
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Bom Jesus EC
Probability
50.4%
Model confidence
50.4%
Bom Jesus EC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Bom Jesus ECWDDDD
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
MorrinhosLWLDW
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Bom Jesus ECMorrinhos
43.8Attack45.8
75.0Defence56.3
60.4Form45.8
62.1Power51.6
1.27xG0.61