Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bolívar · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Bolívar are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Sao Paulo are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Bolívar hold a 16.5-point power-rating edge (83.3 v 66.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 16.4% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Bolívar holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 38% BTTS chance and 29% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bolívar
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
16.4%
Bolívar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20