Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bolívar · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Bolívar are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDLDL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Palestino are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DWDLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Bolívar hold a 31.2-point power-rating edge (70.7 v 39.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.3% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Bolívar holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 34% BTTS chance and 28% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bolívar
Probability
47.3%
Model confidence
47.3%
Bolívar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20