Bolívarvs
Monagas II
COMPLETEDVenezuela · Segunda División · 10/4/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monagas II · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bolívar 2-1 Monagas II
Original prediction
Monagas II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 10:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 41.8% | 32.8% | -8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 28.6% | 29.9% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.02 | 29.7% | 37.3% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Monagas II
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Monagas II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00