Bolívarvs
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
COMPLETEDBolivia · Copa de la División Profesional · 10/1/2026, 10:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bolívar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bolívar 3-2 Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Original prediction
Bolívar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.06 | 85.8% | 70.3% | -15.6 pts |
| Draw | 9.44 | 9.7% | 16.8% | 7.1 pts |
| Away | 20.21 | 4.5% | 13.0% | 8.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.06 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.3–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Bolívar
Probability
70.3%
Model confidence
70.3%
Bolívar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 4 · GA 16 · avg 0.80/3.20