Bolívarvs
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
COMPLETEDBolivia · Primera División · 9/18/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bolívar · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (14%), 4-0 (12%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bolívar 4-2 Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Original prediction
Bolívar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.06 | 86.7% | 88.5% | 1.8 pts |
| Draw | 10.45 | 8.8% | 8.1% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 20.57 | 4.5% | 3.5% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.06 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–014%
- 2.4–012%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Bolívar
Probability
88.5%
Model confidence
88.5%
Bolívar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60