Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Bolívar are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Cienciano are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWLDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Bolívar hold a 16.5-point power-rating edge (70.7 v 54.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 34.7% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
34.7%
Model confidence
34.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00