Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bolívar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bolívar 3-0 Blooming
Original prediction
Bolívar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.13 | 79.9% | 61.4% | -18.5 pts |
| Draw | 6.66 | 13.6% | 20.0% | 6.4 pts |
| Away | 13.75 | 6.6% | 18.7% | 12.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.13 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Bolívar
Probability
61.4%
Model confidence
61.4%
Bolívar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BolívarDWWDW
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
BloomingLDWWL
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
BolívarBlooming
58.3Attack66.7
66.7Defence0.0
66.7Form25.0
66.3Power30.8
2.50xG1.26