Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bolívar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bolívar 1-0 Blooming
Original prediction
Bolívar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.06 | 86.9% | 68.2% | -18.7 pts |
| Draw | 10.04 | 9.2% | 17.6% | 8.5 pts |
| Away | 23.75 | 3.9% | 14.1% | 10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.06 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Bolívar
Probability
68.2%
Model confidence
68.2%
Bolívar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BolívarDWWWD
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BloomingDLLLL
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BolívarBlooming
90.0Attack50.0
63.3Defence63.3
75.0Form45.0
74.7Power52.5
2.12xG0.95