Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Bolívar are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Aragua FC are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Aragua FC hold a 2.1-point power-rating edge (50.9 v 53.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.4% in the Segunda División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 16% BTTS chance and 8% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
54.4%
Model confidence
54.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80