Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bolívar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-1 (9%), 3-1 (9%), 4-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bolívar 4-1 ABB
Original prediction
Bolívar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.16 | 78.0% | 83.4% | 5.4 pts |
| Draw | 6.89 | 13.2% | 9.9% | -3.3 pts |
| Away | 10.24 | 8.9% | 6.7% | -2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.16 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–19%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.4–09%
Predicted outcome
Bolívar
Probability
83.4%
Model confidence
83.4%
Bolívar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BolívarWLWDW
GF 14 · GA 9 · avg 2.80/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
ABBDLLWD
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BolívarABB
83.3Attack54.2
62.5Defence31.3
68.8Form35.4
70.2Power42.1
4.04xG1.03