GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 9/5/2023, 6:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Bolton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1

Highconfidence

Bolton are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Salford City are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Bolton hold a 54.7-point power-rating edge (88.5 v 33.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 79.0% in the EFL Trophy, while Bolton holds the strongest overall chance at 79% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 81% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Bolton

Probability

79.0%

Model confidence

79.0%

Bolton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

BoltonWLDLW

GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Salford CityLDLWL

GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BoltonSalford City
100.0Attack55.6
88.9Defence0.0
88.9Form33.3
88.5Power33.8
3.56xG1.01
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