Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bolton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Bolton are 0W-5D-0L in their last 5 (DDDDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Rotherham are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Bolton hold a 19.8-point power-rating edge (88.5 v 68.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 55.1% in the EFL Trophy, while Bolton holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bolton
Probability
55.1%
Model confidence
55.1%
Bolton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60