Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bolton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Bolton are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Port Vale are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Bolton hold a 46.6-point power-rating edge (88.5 v 41.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 72.9% in the EFL Trophy, while Bolton holds the strongest overall chance at 73% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bolton
Probability
72.9%
Model confidence
72.9%
Bolton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00