GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 9/26/2023, 6:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Bolton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1

Highconfidence

Bolton are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Manchester United U21 are 0W-1D-1L in their last 2 (DL), averaging 0.50 scored and 1.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 7 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Bolton hold a 66.4-point power-rating edge (88.5 v 22.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 79.5% in the EFL Trophy, while Bolton holds the strongest overall chance at 79% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 81% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Bolton

Probability

79.5%

Model confidence

79.5%

Bolton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

BoltonDLWWL

GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Manchester United U21DL

GF 1 · GA 3 · avg 0.50/1.50

BTTS 1/2O2.5 0/2
BoltonManchester United U21
100.0Attack55.6
88.9Defence0.0
88.9Form11.1
88.5Power22.2
3.60xG1.01
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