Boltonvs
Manchester City U21
COMPLETEDEngland · EFL Trophy · 9/23/2025, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bolton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-0
Bolton are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Manchester City U21 are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLD), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Bolton hold a 65.5-point power-rating edge (88.5 v 23.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 81.8% in the EFL Trophy, while Bolton holds the strongest overall chance at 82% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 79% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bolton
Probability
81.8%
Model confidence
81.8%
Bolton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20