GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 9/23/2025, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Bolton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-0

Highconfidence

Bolton are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Manchester City U21 are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLD), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Bolton hold a 65.5-point power-rating edge (88.5 v 23.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 81.8% in the EFL Trophy, while Bolton holds the strongest overall chance at 82% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 79% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Bolton

Probability

81.8%

Model confidence

81.8%

Bolton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

BoltonWDWWD

GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Manchester City U21WLWLD

GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BoltonManchester City U21
100.0Attack33.3
88.9Defence11.1
88.9Form11.1
88.5Power23.1
3.59xG0.88
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