Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bolton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Bolton are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DDWWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Bradford are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDLLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Bolton hold a 7.2-point power-rating edge (88.5 v 81.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.1% in the EFL Trophy, while Bolton holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bolton
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Bolton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00