Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bolton · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Bolton are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Barrow are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDLWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Bolton hold a 24.2-point power-rating edge (47.8 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.0% in the League Cup, while Bolton holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bolton
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
Bolton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40