Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bologna · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Bologna are 1W-1D-2L in their last 4 (LWLD), averaging 1.50 scored and 1.75 conceded, while Cesena are 1W-1D-0L in their last 2 (DW), averaging 3.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 6 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Bologna hold a 45.8-point power-rating edge (77.1 v 31.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 57.6% in the Coppa Italia, while Bologna holds the strongest overall chance at 58% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bologna
Probability
57.6%
Model confidence
57.6%
Bologna has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.50/1.75
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 3.00/1.50