Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bologna · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Bologna are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWDLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Celtic are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Bologna hold an 11.1-point power-rating edge (57.7 v 46.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 57.7% in the UEFA Europa League, while Bologna holds the strongest overall chance at 58% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bologna
Probability
57.7%
Model confidence
57.7%
Bologna has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40