GGOALVIO

World · UEFA Europa League · 4/9/2026, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Aston Villa · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Bologna are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Aston Villa are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Aston Villa hold a 21.9-point power-rating edge (57.7 v 79.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.4% in the UEFA Europa League, while Aston Villa holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Aston Villa

Probability

54.4%

Model confidence

54.4%

Aston Villa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

BolognaWLWWD

GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Aston VillaLWWLW

GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BolognaAston Villa
52.4Attack68.9
57.1Defence82.2
59.5Form86.7
57.7Power79.6
0.85xG1.73
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