Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AS Roma · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Bologna are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.40 conceded, while AS Roma are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LDWDW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and AS Roma hold a 4.0-point power-rating edge (57.7 v 61.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.7% in the UEFA Europa League, while AS Roma holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 39% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
AS Roma
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
40.7%
AS Roma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40