Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paraguay · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bolivia 0-2 Paraguay
Original prediction
Paraguay
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.56 | 14.1% | 28.8% | 14.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.13 | 22.3% | 27.4% | 5.1 pts |
| Away | 1.45 | 63.6% | 43.7% | -19.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Paraguay
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Paraguay has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BoliviaLLWLD
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
ParaguayWLWWL
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
BoliviaParaguay
20.0Attack66.7
66.7Defence50.0
26.7Form50.0
40.7Power56.2
1.11xG1.21