Boisevs
Greenville Triumph
COMPLETEDUSA · USL League One · 10/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Boise · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Boise 1-0 Greenville Triumph
Original prediction
Boise
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.43 | 62.8% | 51.4% | -11.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.46 | 20.2% | 25.3% | 5.2 pts |
| Away | 5.30 | 17.0% | 23.2% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Boise
Probability
51.4%
Model confidence
51.4%
Boise has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BoiseLDDWW
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Greenville TriumphLLLLL
GF 3 · GA 16 · avg 0.60/3.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
BoiseGreenville Triumph
52.4Attack37.0
53.6Defence37.0
54.8Form28.4
55.4Power35.8
2.26xG0.89