Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Boise · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Boise 2-1 Alta
Original prediction
Boise
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 64.6% | 58.6% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.41 | 20.1% | 21.7% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 5.82 | 15.3% | 19.7% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Boise
Probability
58.6%
Model confidence
58.6%
Boise has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BoiseWWLDD
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
AltaDLLLL
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
BoiseAlta
52.2Attack41.1
55.6Defence51.1
57.8Form36.7
57.1Power44.3
1.72xG0.96