Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bohemians · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bohemians 2-1 Waterford
Original prediction
Bohemians
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 57.2% | 61.9% | 4.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.16 | 22.3% | 20.3% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 4.51 | 20.5% | 17.8% | -2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Bohemians
Probability
61.9%
Model confidence
61.9%
Bohemians has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BohemiansLLWDW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
WaterfordWLDDW
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BohemiansWaterford
58.6Attack45.8
59.6Defence43.8
59.6Form35.4
60.3Power43.3
2.23xG0.96