Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Bogota FC 0-0 Envigado, with an exact score probability of 28%.
Prediction record
Final result
Bogota FC 3-3 Envigado
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.67 | 33.8% | 29.4% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.81 | 32.1% | 33.5% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.65 | 34.1% | 37.1% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.81 · Draw 1.81 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Projected Score
Bogota FC 0–0 Envigado
Exact score probability: 28%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.5%
Model confidence
37.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Bogota FCLWDLL
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
EnvigadoDWDDD
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Bogota FCEnvigado
26.9Attack43.4
65.6Defence71.7
39.8Form55.6
46.8Power58.5
0.47xG0.85