Bodo/Glimtvs
Borussia Dortmund
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 10/14/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Borussia Dortmund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bodo/Glimt 1-0 Borussia Dortmund
Original prediction
Borussia Dortmund
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.95 | 32.3% | 36.5% | 4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.97 | 24.0% | 25.3% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.18 | 43.7% | 38.1% | -5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
Borussia Dortmund
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Borussia Dortmund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 12 · avg 2.60/2.40
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20