Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Boden · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Boden 2-5 Lucksta
Original prediction
Boden
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.26 | 40.3% | 45.5% | 5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.75 | 24.3% | 20.5% | -3.8 pts |
| Away | 2.57 | 35.4% | 34.0% | -1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Boden
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
Boden has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BodenWLLLW
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
LuckstaWLLLL
GF 8 · GA 15 · avg 1.60/3.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
BodenLucksta
42.7Attack58.7
45.3Defence25.3
45.3Form37.3
46.7Power41.9
2.15xG1.79