Boca Unidosvs
Defensores de Vilelas
COMPLETEDArgentina · Torneo Federal A · 9/19/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Boca Unidos · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Boca Unidos 3-3 Defensores de Vilelas
Original prediction
Boca Unidos
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.90 | 47.4% | 46.2% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.2% | 25.7% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 3.69 | 24.4% | 28.1% | 3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.19 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Boca Unidos
Probability
46.2%
Model confidence
46.2%
Boca Unidos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40