Boca Juniorsvs
Union Santa Fe
COMPLETEDArgentina · Liga Profesional Argentina · 10/3/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Boca Juniors · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Boca Juniors 3-0 Union Santa Fe
Original prediction
Boca Juniors
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 64.2% | 55.5% | -8.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.14 | 22.7% | 25.1% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 7.14 | 13.1% | 19.3% | 6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Boca Juniors
Probability
55.5%
Model confidence
55.5%
Boca Juniors has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60