GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 5/16/2024, 12:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Fortaleza EC · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1

Highconfidence

Boca Juniors are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Fortaleza EC are 0W-4D-1L in their last 5 (DLDDD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Fortaleza EC hold a 9.4-point power-rating edge (64.7 v 74.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.4% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Fortaleza EC holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 39% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Fortaleza EC

Probability

53.4%

Model confidence

53.4%

Fortaleza EC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Boca JuniorsLWLWD

GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Fortaleza ECDLDDD

GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
Boca JuniorsFortaleza EC
44.4Attack71.8
77.8Defence74.4
66.7Form76.9
64.7Power74.1
0.71xG1.55
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