Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Blumenau are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Sao Jose are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (WDDWD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Blumenau hold a 9.6-point power-rating edge (60.1 v 50.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 49.6% in the Serie D, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 17% BTTS chance and 10% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
49.6%
Model confidence
49.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40