Blumenauvs
Marcílio Dias
COMPLETEDBrazil · Copa Santa Catarina · 9/26/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marcílio Dias · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Blumenau 1-1 Marcílio Dias
Original prediction
Marcílio Dias
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 12:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.94 | 30.5% | 32.1% | 1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.02 | 29.7% | 27.8% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.26 | 39.7% | 40.1% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.02 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Marcílio Dias
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
Marcílio Dias has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 14 · GA 10 · avg 2.80/2.00