Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aurora · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Blooming are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDLDW), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Aurora are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LDDWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Aurora hold a 6.6-point power-rating edge (49.3 v 55.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.5% in the Primera División, while Aurora holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aurora
Probability
34.9%
Model confidence
14.5%
Aurora has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00