Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Blackpool · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Blackpool 2-4 Plymouth
Original prediction
Blackpool
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.59 | 35.8% | 39.6% | 3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.7% | 24.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.41 | 38.5% | 35.5% | -3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Blackpool
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Blackpool has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BlackpoolDLLWL
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
PlymouthWWLWL
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BlackpoolPlymouth
61.1Attack55.6
50.0Defence55.6
44.4Form55.6
51.8Power56.2
1.61xG1.43