Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bolton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Blackpool are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Bolton are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Bolton hold a 20.6-point power-rating edge (67.9 v 88.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.3% in the EFL Trophy, while Bolton holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bolton
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Bolton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60