Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Urartu · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
BKMA 2-1 FC Urartu
Original prediction
FC Urartu
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.72 | 19.2% | 26.5% | 7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 24.2% | 27.3% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 1.60 | 56.6% | 46.2% | -10.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
FC Urartu
Probability
46.2%
Model confidence
46.2%
FC Urartu has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BKMAWLLLD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
FC UrartuDWWLD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BKMAFC Urartu
26.7Attack53.3
60.0Defence66.7
26.7Form53.3
38.4Power58.6
0.95xG1.33