Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qarabag · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
BK Hacken are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Qarabag are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Qarabag hold a 32.4-point power-rating edge (38.8 v 71.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.5% in the UEFA Europa League, while Qarabag holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Qarabag
Probability
52.5%
Model confidence
52.5%
Qarabag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60