Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bjarg · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bjarg 5-2 Notodden
Original prediction
Bjarg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.37 | 66.3% | 47.6% | -18.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.96 | 18.3% | 25.7% | 7.4 pts |
| Away | 5.91 | 15.4% | 26.7% | 11.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Bjarg
Probability
47.6%
Model confidence
47.6%
Bjarg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BjargWWWLW
GF 16 · GA 8 · avg 3.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
NotoddenLLWLD
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
BjargNotodden
71.2Attack47.0
57.6Defence69.7
66.7Form53.0
64.7Power56.5
1.45xG1.08