Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bjarg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Bjarg are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLW), averaging 3.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Gneist are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Bjarg hold a 2.7-point power-rating edge (6.7 v 4.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.1% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Bjarg holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 70% BTTS chance and 68% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bjarg
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
10.1%
Bjarg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 6 · avg 3.20/1.20
GF 9 · GA 14 · avg 1.80/2.80