Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arendal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bjarg 4-0 Arendal
Original prediction
Arendal
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 51.9% | 36.4% | -15.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.75 | 24.2% | 25.8% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 3.81 | 23.8% | 37.9% | 14.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Arendal
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Arendal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BjargWDLWD
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
ArendalWWWDL
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BjargArendal
33.3Attack70.5
66.7Defence51.3
33.3Form56.4
45.3Power57.1
1.50xG2.00