Biwako Shigavs
Sagamihara
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 10/18/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sagamihara · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Biwako Shiga 0-2 Sagamihara
Original prediction
Sagamihara
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.98 | 29.8% | 28.9% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 26.4% | 22.7% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 2.02 | 43.8% | 48.4% | 4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Sagamihara
Probability
48.4%
Model confidence
48.4%
Sagamihara has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40