Biwako Shigavs
Kagoshima United
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 9/13/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kagoshima United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Biwako Shiga 1-2 Kagoshima United
Original prediction
Kagoshima United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.89 | 23.2% | 29.3% | 6.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 26.9% | 25.5% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 1.80 | 50.0% | 45.2% | -4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.80 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–17%
Predicted outcome
Kagoshima United
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
45.2%
Kagoshima United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00